2030 target

2030 ambitions could close the gap to saving energy cost-effectively

According to a research conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI) for the Coalition for Energy Savings, the EU has a 41% cost-effective end-use energy savings potential for 2030. This means that the EU could save 600 Mtoe by 2030 (compared to the latest projections for energy consumption in 2030) cost-effectively.

About the Gapometer

The Gapometer is a visualisation tool to assess the impact of target proposals and estimate how far they would help to close the gap to the 2030 cost-effective potentials. The estimates are based on the Commission’s modelling and our own calculations.

The Gapometer

The European Commission

The proposal:

In July 2014 the European Commission in its communication on energy efficiency put forward a 30% energy savings target to be included in the climate and energy framework for 2030.

Note: The European Commission uses pre-economic crisis projections for energy consumption in 2030 (PRIMES 2007) as a reference for the energy efficiency scenarios in the Impact Assessment accompanying the Commission’s communication on energy efficiency. In the latest projections (PRIMES 2013), energy consumption is 21% lower in 2030 than in the older projections, since they use lower economic activity projections and include impacts of more recent policies such as the Energy Efficiency Directive, although they only count its impacts until 2020 so in effect a “policy freeze”.

Is it enough?

The gap could be further closed.

The continuation of existing energy efficiency policies with no improvements, including the Ecodesign Directive and extending Article 7 end-use energy savings targets of the Energy Efficiency Directive to 2030 and setting CO2 from cars standards for post-2020 would already deliver around 30% energy savings in 2030, equal to the target proposed by the Commission.

Making improvements to existing policies, such as removing exemptions from the Article 7 end-use energy savings targets of the Energy Efficiency Directive and extending this to 2030 would deliver around 35% energy savings in 2030.

Due to delays with policy implementation, opportunities for making cost-effective energy savings may be lost, so the gap to achieving the savings potential may close slightly.

The European Parliament

The proposal:

In February 2014 the European Parliament called for an ambitious and binding 40% energy efficiency target for 2030 within its own-initiative report on a 2030 framework for climate and energy.

 

Is it enough?

Depending on the interpretation of this target, it could entirely close the gap to the 2030 cost-effective potential energy savings.